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Aurora borealis forecast

Thursday, Jan 28 2010

OK folks!

Got ourselves some clear skies at Hotel Ranga tonight and a 50% chance of seeing the lights tonite - I believe. The aurora has been a bit more consistent than last year, albeit mostly weaker green displays. But this is changing every day as Solarcycle 24 progresses and The Age of Aurora arrives. Solar activity is definitely on the rise and will almost certainly continue to do so for a long time to come. Meaning - MORE AURORA! A very good website to monitor this is http://www.solarcycle24.com/ .

So - here comes my latest prediction of dates that have a higher probability of having good auroral displays. This is by no means an entirely accurate or scientifically proven forecast - but it is based on putting together many types of available data, my previous experience and a bit of "sixth sense". I am not advocating that people should plan their trips to Iceland expecting to see the lights according to this chart alone on - but it is a little fun to see if the predictions turn out accurate and if the sun acts according to plan. Which is not always the case. There are no guarantees when and if the aurora appears. And that is part of its beauty and mysticism.

Anyway - for what its worth - here goes:

FEBRUARY
February 4 to 7      Moderate aurora
February 10 to 13    Good aurora
February 15 to 19    Very good aurora
February 20 to 25    Good aurora
February 26 to 28    Moderate aurora

Predicted peak date - 16th of February
New moon is February 14th
Full moon is February 28

MARCH
March 2 to March 6    Good aurora
March 8 to March 9    Good to very good aurora
March 12 to March 19  Very good aurora
March 23 to March 28  Moderate to good aurora

Predicted peak date is March 15th
New moon is March 15th (same date!)
Full moon is March 30

APRIL
April 1 to April 4     Good Aurora (no - its not an April fools joke)
April 10 to April 14th Very good aurora

Predicted peak date is April 11th
New moon is April 14th
Full moon is April 28

After this date the aurora becomes less visible - although I have seen the northern lights in beautiful displays well into May on several occassions.

I hope that this prognosis can be of help and wish you all a nice evening. I also hope to see as many aurora fans as possible here this coming 11 week period - which should be quite an exciting time for us "aurora freaks".

Ciao from Iceland

Bob Borealis

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